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The Draft Bomb
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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2023R4 · #127
QB· Round 4

Jake
Haener.

Jake Haener
Bomb Grade
55.4/100

Fresno St. official athletic logoFresno St.· 6'0"· 207 lb

/ Recruiting profile
★★★☆☆stars.8628
National · #622HS class · 2017
Monte Vista, CA
247Sports composite via CFBD
R4 · #127 · NOR

"A five-year college operator who threw receivers open with anticipation and nerve, and whose NFL runway disappeared before the developmental reps he needed ever arrived."Pre-draft read

01Play style

In Fresno State's timing-based passing game Haener operated as a full-time pocket quarterback whose value came from anticipation rather than arm talent. He played with his eyes and his footwork in rhythm, attacking the middle of the field on hitches, digs and option routes, and he threw receivers open before separation existed. Compact release, ball out on schedule and on the correct shoulder.

The secondary trait was competitive toughness in a collapsing pocket, where he would climb, reset and deliver through contact. He was a plus on play-action and third-and-medium, a liability on true drop-back verticals outside the numbers. The signature was accuracy under duress — 72.0 percent as a senior — not velocity.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Timing- and rhythm-based West Coast / play-action passing game

ShotgunUnder center play-actionPistolEmpty
Best role

Year 1: QB2 in a full-field progression system where he can run the offense on scout looks and in relief. Ceiling: high-end backup or short-term bridge starter for a run-heavy team that keeps throws inside the numbers.

Wrong fit

A vertical, boundary-heavy offense built on outside comebacks and deep out-breakers, or any scheme that leans on quarterback-designed runs and off-script creation — his velocity and lack of mobility are exposed on both.

Needs a clean pocket and a defined progression tree; his edge is speed of decision, not the ability to erase a busted play.

03Film room

Jake Haener 2022 Fresno State Highlights

Senior-season tape: anticipation throws over the middle and third-down accuracy.

Jake Haener 2021-2022 Fresno State Highlights

Two-year cut showing the 4,096-yard 2021 season and his rhythm within Fresno State's timing game.

Jake Haener Senior Bowl Highlights

Mobile week that pushed him up boards, including the deep touchdown to Michael Wilson.

04The evaluation

Haener was the 2023 class's clearest example of a quarterback who wins with timing, processing and nerve instead of physical ceiling. Five college years across two programs left him with a fully formed operating system: quick pre-snap diagnosis, disciplined progressions, and short-to-intermediate placement that graded near the top of the class.

The production backed the tape. After a backup year at Washington and a transfer sit-out season, he threw for 2,021 yards in a six-game COVID season, then 4,096 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2021, then returned from a mid-season injury in 2022 to complete 72.0 percent with a 20-to-3 ratio and win a Mountain West title. The flags were physical and permanent: average arm strength that shrank the field, a 207-pound frame, arms measured at 29 3/4 inches, and no scramble value. Boundary throws hung.

Boards had him QB6 or QB7, a Day 3 developmental backup, with a strong Senior Bowl week in Mobile pushing him up several sheets. New Orleans traded up in the fourth round to take him 127th — a bet on brains and toughness behind Derek Carr, priced as a future bridge rather than a project.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Anticipation

    Throws to the break point off pre-snap reads, layering digs and option routes into windows before the receiver has separated.

  2. 02

    Short-area accuracy

    Completed 72.0 percent as a senior and 68.2 percent for his college career, consistently placing the ball on the correct shoulder.

  3. 03

    Pocket poise

    Climbs, resets and delivers through contact rather than drifting backward when the interior gives ground.

  4. 04

    Processing speed

    Reads coverage rotation quickly and works from first read to third without stalling the timing of the concept.

  5. 05

    Competitive toughness

    Played through a mid-season injury in 2022 and returned to lead Fresno State to a Mountain West title and a bowl win.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Arm strength

    Average velocity that shrinks the field; boundary throws and deep out-breakers hang long enough for NFL closing speed to arrive.

  2. 02

    Frame and length

    Listed at 6-0 and 207 pounds with 29 3/4-inch arms, a third-percentile measurement that raises throwing-lane and durability questions.

  3. 03

    Mobility

    Offers no scramble value or designed-run element, so broken plays end in sacks instead of second-chance yardage.

  4. 04

    Ceiling

    Physical limits cap the projection at high-end backup or bridge starter rather than a quarterback who lifts an offense on his own.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'0"
Weight
207 lb
Vertical
35"
Broad
9'6"
3-cone
7.01s
06Athletic profilevs. QB on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
s
Vertical
35inp50
Broad jump
114inp50
Three-cone
7.01sp50
Shuttle
s
Bench
rep
08College production
YrTeamGCmpAttYdsTDInt
2018Washington491310711
2020Fresno State61502322021145
2021Fresno State133294904096339
2022Fresno State102523502896203
Career33740108591206818

Verified against cfbstats.com (Fresno State 2020-2022) and Washington 2018 game logs. Did not play in 2019 (transfer sit-out season); no phantom season row is listed. Season sums match career totals exactly.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2022
57.8%of team plays
91 percentile at positionFresno State
Pass plays · 95.8%Run plays · 6.9%Third down · 71.1%Passing downs · 76.8%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Case KeenumHOU

Undersized, accurate pocket passer who carves out a long career as a trusted QB2 with occasional spot starts.

/ Ceiling
Kirk CousinsMIN

Accuracy-and-timing starter who thrives with structure and clean pockets, the outcome if the processing had ever gotten a real runway.

/ Floor
Kyle SloterDEN

Preseason and practice-squad quarterback who bounces between rosters without ever securing meaningful regular-season snaps.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
Career AV

Haener never got the runway the pick implied. A six-game PED suspension to open 2023 wiped out the front half of his rookie season; he was reinstated in October, dressed for one game and never threw a regular-season pass that year. He entered 2024 as the backup behind Derek Carr, appeared in eight games and drew one late-season start, finishing 18 of 39 for 226 yards with a touchdown and an interception and a 62.6 rating. In 2025 New Orleans lost Carr to retirement, drafted Tyler Shough in the second round and kept Spencer Rattler, and Haener finished third in the three-man race — waived at final cuts in August, re-signed to the practice squad, cut again mid-season. He signed a futures deal with Kansas City in February 2026, was waived in May, spent two weeks with the Giants in August and was released again on August 30, leaving him a free agent.

In hindsight this is a runway failure more than a scouting failure. The evaluation was honest about the arm, the frame and the absence of mobility, and nobody drafted him expecting a franchise outcome. But a fourth-round quarterback survives on developmental reps, and the suspension cost him the only season where those reps were free. Thirty-nine career attempts across three seasons is a miss at the pick, if a routine one for the range.

The Draft Bomb · retrospective scouting profile