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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2022R5 · #144
QB· Round 5

Sam
Howell.

Sam Howell, North Carolina scouting portrait
Bomb Grade
57.4/100

North Carolina official athletic logoNorth Carolina· 6'1"· 218 lb

/ Recruiting profile
★★★★☆stars.9582
National · #93HS class · 2019
Sun Valley, NC
247Sports composite via CFBD
R5 · #144 · WAS

"A true freshman phenom who left North Carolina as its all-time passing leader and then slid to the fifth round, because the final season of tape showed a quarterback taking 47 sacks and forcing throws."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Howell is a compact, thickly built pocket quarterback with a live arm and an aggressive streak that defines every snap. He drives the ball into tight windows on deep overs and back-shoulder throws, and his arm talent shows up most on the vertical shot plays North Carolina built its offense around.

The second layer is toughness. He absorbed 47 sacks as a junior behind a rebuilt line and still ran for 829 yards and 11 touchdowns, most of it on scrambles and designed keepers where he initiated contact. He plays fast and confident from the pocket and will hang in to complete a throw with a rusher arriving. The signature is a willingness to take risks that produces both the explosive plays and the turnovers.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

A quick-game, play-action offense that defines reads pre-snap, gets the ball out on rhythm and uses his legs on boot and zone-read keepers, so his aggression is aimed at defined windows rather than improvisation.

ShotgunUnder center play-actionPistolBootleg
Best role

Year 1: developmental backup who sits behind a veteran. Ceiling: a low-end starting quarterback whose arm carries an offense with strong protection and structure.

Wrong fit

A drop-back offense that asks him to hold the ball through deep full-field progressions behind a shaky line, which is precisely the environment that produced his 47-sack junior season.

His outcomes track almost perfectly with how much pressure the offense around him allows.

03Film room

Sam Howell 2021 Regular Season Highlights | UNC QB

Conference cutup of his junior season, the tape the draft evaluation centered on.

North Carolina QB Sam Howell 2021 Highlights

Full-season reel showing his arm talent, scrambling and pressure exposure.

Sam Howell 2019 Season Highlights | UNC QB

His record-setting true freshman season, when he threw 38 touchdowns.

04The evaluation

Howell was a high-profile in-state recruit out of Sun Valley High School in Monroe, North Carolina who flipped to the Tar Heels late and started as a true freshman. He was immediately excellent: 3,641 yards, 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2019, ACC Rookie of the Year and a national name before his 20th birthday. He followed it with a more efficient sophomore year, throwing for 3,586 yards at 10.3 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns, with Michael Carter, Javonte Williams and Dyami Brown around him.

Then 2021 happened. All three of those weapons left for the NFL, the offensive line regressed, and Howell's numbers fell to 3,056 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions with 47 sacks taken. He compensated by running, gaining 829 yards and 11 scores on the ground, and left as the school's all-time leader with 10,283 passing yards and 92 touchdowns.

The board split on him. At 6-1 and 220 pounds with an unquestioned arm, he had once been a first-round conversation, but the junior tape showed a quarterback who held the ball too long, invited pressure and forced throws. The talent was real and so were the sack totals. He slid out of the first three rounds entirely before Washington took him at 144 as a developmental bet.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Arm talent

    genuine velocity to drive deep overs and comebacks into tight coverage, and he can make every throw the position requires from the pocket.

  2. 02

    Toughness

    took 47 sacks as a junior and kept standing in to deliver, showing no visible flinch when the pocket collapsed around him late in games.

  3. 03

    Rushing production

    829 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2021, a real short-yardage and scramble dimension that his frame supports.

  4. 04

    Production and pedigree

    three-year starter who left North Carolina as the school record holder with 10,283 passing yards and 92 touchdowns.

  5. 05

    Downfield aggression

    willing to take shots and trust his receivers, which produced explosive plays throughout his freshman and sophomore seasons.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Pressure management

    the 47 sacks in 2021 were not all on the line; he holds the ball waiting for a play to appear rather than throwing it away.

  2. 02

    Decision-making

    the aggressive streak turns into forced throws into coverage, a habit that showed up as his supporting cast weakened.

  3. 03

    Size and pocket vision

    at 6-1 he has to move to find passing lanes, and his throwing platform deteriorates when he has to climb and reset.

  4. 04

    Junior-year regression

    the last season of tape was his worst, which is the wrong shape of a career arc for a quarterback entering the league.

08College production
YrTeamGCmpAttYdsTDInt
2019North Carolina132594223641387
2020North Carolina122373483586307
2021North Carolina122173473056249
Career—377131117102839223

The 2020 and 2021 lines are verified directly against cfbstats (North Carolina, team 457, player 1104500). cfbstats does not publish a 2019 player page for him, so that season comes from The Football Database's season ledger, which matches his school records. The three seasons sum exactly to the career totals of 37 games, 713 completions, 1,117 attempts, 10,283 yards, 92 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, and those passing yardage and touchdown totals are the North Carolina career records. His rushing production, including 829 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021, is discussed in the evaluation but is not carried in this passing ledger.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2021
63.5%of team plays
94 percentile at positionNorth Carolina
Pass plays · 98.0%Run plays · 31.8%Third down · 80.8%Passing downs · 81.4%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Jacoby BrissettIndianapolis Colts

A sturdy, well-regarded quarterback who starts stretches for several teams and holds a valuable long-term backup role.

/ Ceiling
Baker MayfieldCleveland Browns

The ceiling: a compact, gunslinging quarterback whose arm and toughness carry him to a long run as a legitimate NFL starter.

/ Floor
Mike GlennonTampa Bay Buccaneers

The downside: an arm talent who gets one shot at a starting job, struggles with turnovers, and bounces around as a QB2.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
—
Career AV
—

Washington gave him the final game of his rookie year and he beat Dallas, which was enough to hand him the 2023 starting job outright. That season was the whole player at full volume: 17 starts, 3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns and 21 interceptions while leading the NFL in attempts, interceptions and sacks taken with 65. Washington moved on, drafting Jayden Daniels and trading him to Seattle, where he threw 14 passes in two games in 2024. He was traded to Minnesota in April 2025, traded again to Philadelphia that August, and signed with Dallas as a backup for 2026.

Four years produced 20 games, 18 starts, 4,139 yards, 22 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. As a 144th pick, the return is genuinely fine value: Washington got a full season of competent starting quarterback play out of a fifth-rounder and then flipped him for draft capital. But the 2023 sample answered the question the draft was asking. The sacks and the interceptions that pushed him out of the first round followed him, and he settled into the league as a capable backup rather than the starter the arm once promised.

The Draft Bomb · retrospective scouting profile