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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2022R4 · #137
QB· Round 4

Bailey
Zappe.

Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky scouting portrait
Bomb Grade
56/100

Western Kentucky official athletic logoWestern Kentucky· 6'1"· 215 lb· 4.88s 40

R4 · #137 · NWE

"The FBS single-season record holder in passing yards and touchdowns, a 6-foot-1 timing passer whose mind was NFL-caliber and whose arm decided how far that mind could take him."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Zappe is a 6-foot-1 timing passer who runs an offense from the pocket with anticipation and rhythm. The ball comes out on time and on schedule, he throws receivers open on slants and deep overs before the break, and he manipulates a safety with his eyes better than most Day 3 quarterbacks ever learn to.

The arm is adequate rather than special: he can drive the out and hit the deep shot with air under it, but he does not create velocity off-platform and his throws lose accuracy when his feet are not set. He is a below-average athlete who will step up but not escape. The signature is the processing speed inside Zach Kittley's Air Raid, where he took the snap, read the leverage and delivered a completion faster than the defense could rotate.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

A timing-and-rhythm passing offense built on quick game, play-action and defined reads, where the ball comes out on the third step and the scheme creates the throwing windows.

Shotgun spreadEmpty formationsPlay-action from 11 personnelTwo-minute pocket passer
Best role

Year 1: developmental QB2 who can run the offense in relief. Ceiling: a long-tenured backup who wins a handful of starts when the scheme protects him.

Wrong fit

A vertical, boundary-throwing offense that asks its quarterback to drive the ball outside the numbers and create off-script, which exposes both the arm and the feet.

His production is inseparable from his coordinator; grade him on the process, not the 62 touchdowns.

03Film room

Bailey Zappe 2021 Full Season Highlights

The full record-breaking WKU season: timing throws, anticipation and the deep-over game.

Bailey Zappe Western Kentucky 2021 Senior Highlights

Senior-season cutup with the quick game and the pocket movement on display.

QB Bailey Zappe Western Kentucky Scouting Report

Pre-draft scouting breakdown of the processing, the arm limits and the system context.

04The evaluation

Zappe spent four years at Houston Baptist throwing the ball 60 times a game in an FCS offense nobody watched, then followed his coordinator to Western Kentucky and broke the FBS single-season records for passing yards and touchdowns. That is the profile in one line: a career backup-sized quarterback who was the perfect operator of one specific system.

The 2021 season was absurd. He threw for 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns against 11 interceptions with a 69.1 completion rate, won Conference USA MVP and the Earl Campbell Award, and was the Boca Raton Bowl offensive MVP. He did it with accuracy and timing rather than arm talent, and he did it behind a good line against defenses that could not disguise coverage fast enough to confuse him.

Every scout saw the same two-sided evaluation. The processing, the pocket calm and the ball placement were genuinely NFL traits, and the Senior Bowl week did nothing to dent them. But he measured 6-foot-1 with average arm strength, he had never played in a pro-style progression offense, and the record numbers came in a scheme built specifically to generate them. He was graded as a developmental backup with a starter's mind, and New England, a team that valued exactly that kind of processor, took him 137th to sit behind Mac Jones.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Anticipation

    throws to spots before the receiver breaks, particularly on slants and deep overs, which is the trait that turned an Air Raid into record production.

  2. 02

    Pocket poise

    climbs and resets inside a collapsing pocket without losing his eyes downfield, keeping the progression alive rather than bailing at first pressure.

  3. 03

    Ball placement

    puts the ball away from the defender on intermediate throws and leads receivers into space, completing 69.1 percent of his passes in 2021.

  4. 04

    Processing and eye discipline

    reads leverage quickly and holds safeties with his eyes, a rare Day 3 trait that made coaches believe he could run a real offense.

  5. 05

    Volume experience

    five college seasons and more than 2,100 career attempts, including a record 5,967-yard, 62-touchdown season that led all of FBS in 2021.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Arm strength

    adequate but not special, so the deep out and the far hash comeback require a hitch and arrive late against NFL closing speed.

  2. 02

    Off-platform throwing

    accuracy falls off sharply when his feet are not set, and he cannot generate velocity while moving or throwing across his body.

  3. 03

    Athleticism

    a below-average mover who will not escape pressure or threaten a defense with his legs, leaving him dependent on clean protection.

  4. 04

    System and level context

    the record production came in one year of a tailor-made Air Raid after four FCS seasons, with no pro-style progression work on tape.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'1"
Weight
215 lb
40 yd
4.88s
Vertical
30"
Broad
9'1"
3-cone
7.19s
Shuttle
4.40s
06Athletic profilevs. QB on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.88sp50
Vertical
30inp50
Broad jump
109inp50
Three-cone
7.19sp50
Shuttle
4.40sp50
Bench
—rep
08College production
YrTeamGCmpAttYdsTDInt
2017Houston Baptist101502661548510
2018Houston Baptist1125243628122313
2019Houston Baptist1235756038113515
2020Houston Baptist41412151833151
2021Western Kentucky1447568759676211
Career—51137521641597114060

Houston Baptist was an FCS program not covered by cfbstats, so the 2017-2020 seasons come from The Football Database's FCS records; the 2021 Western Kentucky line comes from Sports-Reference with bowl statistics included (475 of 687 for 5,967 yards, 62 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), which matches the NCAA FBS single-season records for passing yards and touchdowns. Some databases list the WKU season as 476 of 686 for 5,953 yards because they exclude the bowl game differently; the Sports-Reference figures are used here for consistency with the record book. The five seasons sum exactly to the career totals of 51 games, 1,375 completions, 2,164 attempts, 15,971 yards, 140 touchdowns and 60 interceptions. Rushing numbers are omitted rather than zero-filled because the FCS seasons are not reported consistently.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2021
71.0%of team plays
97 percentile at positionWestern Kentucky
Pass plays · 98.5%Run plays · 10.6%Third down · 71.7%Passing downs · 84.3%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Case KeenumHouston Texans

A processor without a special arm who survives for years as a trusted backup and wins a run of games when the situation is right.

/ Ceiling
Gardner Minshew IILas Vegas Raiders

The upside case: a rhythm passer with limited arm talent who parlays accuracy and command into a decade of starts and spot duty.

/ Floor
Kevin HoganCleveland Browns

The floor: a smart small-frame passer who gets a handful of starts, exposes the physical limits and bounces around practice squads.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
—
Career AV
—

He got his chance immediately and it lasted two years. With Mac Jones struggling in 2022, Zappe played four games, went 2-0 as a starter and completed 70.7 percent for 781 yards with five touchdowns against three interceptions, briefly turning into a folk hero in New England. The 2023 season was the reckoning: 10 games, six starts, a 2-4 record, 1,272 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions at 6.0 yards per attempt behind a broken offense, and the arm limitations were plain every week.

New England moved on after that. He spent 2024 between Kansas City's offseason roster and Cleveland, where he made one start and threw for 170 yards with a touchdown and two picks, then spent 2025 on the Browns practice squad without taking a regular-season snap. He signed a futures deal with the Jets in January 2026, was cut at final reductions in August and re-signed to their practice squad in September. Across four seasons he is 16 games, eight starts and a 4-5 record with 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. For a fourth-round pick, a stretch of real starts and a long backup career is close to the median outcome; the ceiling was always going to be capped by the arm.

The Draft Bomb · retrospective scouting profile