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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2020Consensus #059
WR· Round 2

Denzel
Mims.

Denzel Mims, Baylor scouting portrait
Bomb Grade
71.4/100
Pre-draft #59

Baylor official athletic logoBaylor· 6'3"· 207 lb· 4.38s 40

/ Recruiting profile
★★★☆☆stars.8792
National · #428HS class · 2016
Daingerfield, TX
247Sports composite via CFBD
R2 · #59 · New York Jets

"A 6-3 receiver who ran 4.38 with a 38.5-inch vertical and caught 28 touchdowns at Baylor, he was the traits bet of the class at a position where traits bets go wrong more often than anywhere else."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Big, long-striding outside receiver who plays the X and wins on vertical routes and contested catches. The catch radius is the trait: he attacks the ball at its highest point, plucks away from his frame and consistently wins fifty-fifty throws down the sideline against smaller corners.

The speed is real too — he eats cushion quickly for a man his size and can run past a corner who misjudges the release. Where he struggles is the middle of the route tree: his breaks are rounded, he telegraphs stems and he needs a runway to change direction. The signature is the back-shoulder fade along the boundary, where the size, the tracking and the hands all show up on one play.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Vertical passing offense that isolates an X receiver and throws him open outside the numbers

Boundary XSplit end on play-action shotsRed-zone fade specialistBack-shoulder isolation
Best role

Year 1 as a rotational outside receiver in three-receiver sets who takes the top off the coverage; ceiling is a 900-yard number two whose value comes from deep shots and the red zone.

Wrong fit

A timing offense built on option routes and quick separation underneath, which asks him to do the one thing his tape says he cannot do.

He needs a coaching staff willing to spend two full seasons rebuilding his release package and break points before judging him.

03Film room

Denzel Mims | 2019 Baylor Highlights

Senior-season reel built around the vertical routes and boundary contested catches.

Baylor WR Denzel Mims 2019 Highlights

Second cut of the 1,020-yard, 12-touchdown season used in most pre-draft evaluations.

Denzel Mims 2019 Baylor Highlights

Extended highlight package useful for judging the release package and break points.

04The evaluation

A four-year Baylor receiver from Daingerfield, Texas, he was the one constant through a coaching change and a program rebuild, producing 1,087 yards as a sophomore, dipping during a difficult junior year, and closing with 66 catches for 1,020 yards and 12 touchdowns as a senior on an 11-win team. At 6-3 and 207 pounds he has the frame teams look for on the outside.

The Combine is what moved him. He ran 4.38, jumped 38.5 inches and posted an 11-foot-6 broad jump, a rare athletic profile at that size, and the Senior Bowl week before it had already been strong. His 2,925 career receiving yards and 28 touchdowns back it up. The concerns were technical rather than physical: the route running is raw, he rounds intermediate breaks, and a documented drop problem in earlier seasons never fully disappeared.

The board treated him as a high-variance outside receiver in a class that had far more refined options available at the same price. The Jets, desperate for a perimeter threat and willing to bet on the traits over the technique, took him at 59 and immediately installed him as a starter.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Size and speed combination

    A 4.38 forty at 6-3 and 207 pounds with a 38.5-inch vertical puts him in a rare athletic tier for an outside receiver.

  2. 02

    Contested-catch dominance

    Attacks the ball at its highest point and wins fifty-fifty throws along the boundary against almost any corner.

  3. 03

    Vertical threat

    Eats cushion in a hurry for his size, which forces safeties to respect the top of the route and opens everything underneath.

  4. 04

    Four-year Big 12 production

    2,925 yards and 28 touchdowns through a coaching change and a program rebuild, with a 1,000-yard senior year.

  5. 05

    Senior Bowl week

    Dominated one-on-ones in Mobile against draftable corners, which validated the tape for the rooms that were still unsure.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Raw route running

    Rounds his breaks and telegraphs stems, so he separates on athleticism rather than technique against NFL corners.

  2. 02

    Drop history

    Concentration lapses on routine targets persisted across multiple seasons and never fully cleaned up as a senior.

  3. 03

    Limited route tree

    Almost entirely a vertical and back-shoulder threat, with little to offer on option routes or in the short game.

  4. 04

    Change of direction

    Needs a runway to redirect, which makes him easy to reroute with physical press coverage at the line.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'3"
Weight
207 lb
40 yd
4.38s
Vertical
38.5"
Broad
10'11"
3-cone
6.66s
Shuttle
4.43s
Bench
16
Relative Athletic Score
9.77
/10 · official

Relative Athletic Score (Kent Lee Platte) benchmarks combine/pro-day numbers against every measured prospect at the position since 1987. 10.00 is elite; 5.00 is average.

06Athletic profilevs. WR on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.38sp50
Vertical
38.5inp50
Broad jump
131inp50
Three-cone
6.66sp50
Shuttle
4.43sp50
Bench
16repp50
08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2016Baylor104240
2017Baylor126110878
2018Baylor12557948
2019Baylor1466102012
Career—48186292528

Sports-Reference totals include bowl games; season sums match the career line exactly (186 receptions for 2,925 yards and 28 touchdowns). Sports-Reference lists 10 games as a freshman while a secondary outlet lists 11 and a 49-game career; the Sports-Reference ledger is used here because its season sums reconcile. He also carried once for minus-six yards in 2017.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2019
11.9%of team plays
92 percentile at positionBaylor
Pass plays · 23.7%Run plays · 0.5%Third down · 16.4%Passing downs · 19.3%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Kenny BrittTennessee Titans

A physically gifted outside receiver whose production comes in flashes and never stabilizes into a full role.

/ Ceiling
Mike WilliamsLos Angeles Chargers

The outcome where the size and contested-catch skill make him a long-term boundary starter even without refined routes.

/ Floor
Stephen HillNew York Jets

An elite tester at receiver who never learns to separate and washes out of the league inside four seasons.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
—
Career AV
—

He missed most of his rookie training camp with hamstring injuries, then caught 23 passes for 357 yards in nine games. Year two was worse: eight receptions in 11 games amid public friction with the coaching staff and a request to be traded. A 2022 season that opened with a 102-yard game against Baltimore ended with 11 catches for 186 yards. The Jets traded him to Detroit in July 2023, who waived him with a calf injury; Pittsburgh added him to the practice squad, Jacksonville signed and released him in 2024, and none of those three teams ever played him in a regular-season game. He spent 2025 and 2026 in the UFL with St. Louis and Dallas, then signed with the Cowboys in June 2026 and was released on August 30. His NFL career line is 30 games, 42 receptions, 676 yards and zero touchdowns.

This is one of the worst outcomes in the round and a clean lesson in the limits of the traits bet at receiver. The speed and the catch radius were exactly as advertised — nothing physical ever went missing. What never arrived was the route craft, and in a league where separation is the whole job, a receiver who cannot get open on technique has no floor at all. The rooms that graded him as a fourth-round developmental project rather than a day-two starter read the tape correctly.

Data note: from Seattle

The Draft Bomb · retrospective scouting profile