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The Draft Bomb
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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2020Consensus #062
RB· Round 2

A.
J. Dillon.

A. J. Dillon, Boston College scouting portrait
Bomb Grade
70.9/100
Pre-draft #62

Boston College official athletic logoBoston College· 6'0"· 247 lb· 4.53s 40

/ Recruiting profile
★★★☆☆stars.8833
National · #406HS class · 2017
Lawrence Academy, CT
247Sports composite via CFBD
R2 · #62 · Green Bay Packers

"A 247-pound bell-cow with 4,382 rushing yards and Boston College's all-time record, whose 4.53 forty and 41-inch vertical dragged a downhill thumper with almost no receiving résumé up the board into Day 2 territory."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Dillon is a downhill one-cut back built like a fullback who runs with a linebacker's temperament. He presses the line square, takes the crease the scheme gives him, and does not dance behind the pads. Contact is the point of the play: he drops his shoulder, keeps his legs churning and carries tacklers past the sticks rather than looking to avoid them.

What separates him from other big backs is the long speed once the pile clears. He is not sudden in a phone booth and needs a defined lane, but when he reaches the second level he pulls away from safeties. In the passing game he is a functional checkdown option with reliable hands and a willing but raw pass-protection base that relies on mass more than technique.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Gap-and-power run game with a defined crease, ideally in a committee where a change-of-pace back handles the third-down and space snaps.

I-backShotgun single backShort-yardage backGoal-line back
Best role

Year 1 heavy-package and short-yardage complement to a starter, with a ceiling as the lead back in a two-man committee that keeps him off passing downs.

Wrong fit

A wide-zone offense that asks the back to stress the edge, cut back on the run and win one-on-one in space, where his lateral limitations show up on every snap.

Ball security and pass protection were the gates on his third-down usage, not his running ability.

03Film room

AJ Dillon NFL Draft Tape | Boston College Running Back

Conference-produced draft cutup, the best single look at his run style across situations.

Boston College RB AJ Dillon Highlight Reel - 2019 Season

Junior-season reel from the 1,685-yard campaign that closed his college career.

Boston College RB AJ Dillon Top Plays 2018

Sophomore-year plays from the injury-shortened season, useful for the contact balance.

04The evaluation

Dillon arrived at Boston College as a hometown-adjacent recruit and immediately became the entire offense. He ran for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns on 300 carries as a true freshman in 2017, took an injury-shortened sophomore year to 1,108 yards and ten scores in ten games, then closed with 318 carries for 1,685 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior. He left as the school's all-time leading rusher with 4,382 career rushing yards in 36 games.

The frame and the workload were the identity. He carried a heavy per-game burden in an offense that told everyone what was coming, behind a run-first ACC line, and the volume showed up as tread concerns for some evaluators. The receiving file was thin by design: 21 career catches for 236 yards, almost all of it in his final two seasons.

Then he tested. A 4.53 forty and a 41-inch vertical at his listed weight made him one of the most explosive big backs to come through the combine in years, and the board moved him from a Day 3 thumper to a Day 2 name. The debate at the top of the second round was straightforward: does an offense want to spend that capital on a back with a narrow role, or is the rare size-speed combination worth it?

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Contact balance

    Absorbs the first hit without losing his base and consistently turns an arm tackle at the line into three or four extra yards through the tackle box.

  2. 02

    Long speed

    Rare straight-line acceleration for his mass, which turns a clean second-level crease into an explosive run instead of a safety catching him from behind.

  3. 03

    Vision in gap schemes

    Reads the down block and the puller quickly in power and counter, hitting the designed crease on time rather than trying to bounce every carry outside.

  4. 04

    Workload durability

    Handled three-down volume for three seasons in a run-first offense and finished as the program's all-time leading rusher without a chronic injury history.

  5. 05

    Short-yardage certainty

    Falls forward on nearly every carry and converts the one-yard situations that decide drives, giving an offense a genuine closer in the fourth quarter.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Lateral suddenness

    Lacks the short-area quickness to make the first defender miss in space, so plays that break down at the line tend to die at the line.

  2. 02

    Receiving résumé

    Barely used as a pass catcher in college, with a limited route tree and little evidence he can be split out or flexed on passing downs.

  3. 03

    Pass protection

    Willing but raw in blitz pickup, winning with mass rather than hand placement and timing, which limits his third-down snaps early.

  4. 04

    Role ceiling

    Profiles as a heavy-package complement rather than a full workload back, which is difficult value to justify inside the top of the second round.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'0"
Weight
247 lb
40 yd
4.53s
Vertical
41"
Broad
10'11"
3-cone
7.19s
Bench
23
Relative Athletic Score
9.16
/10 · official

Relative Athletic Score (Kent Lee Platte) benchmarks combine/pro-day numbers against every measured prospect at the position since 1987. 10.00 is elite; 5.00 is average.

06Athletic profilevs. RB on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.53sp50
Vertical
41inp50
Broad jump
131inp50
Three-cone
7.19sp50
Shuttle
—s
Bench
23repp50
08College production
YrTeamGAttYdsTDRecRecYds
2017Boston College1330015891400
2018Boston College10227110810841
2019Boston College1331816851413195
Career—3684543823821236

Sports-Reference totals include bowl games; season sums match the career line exactly (845 carries for 4,382 yards and 38 touchdowns, 21 catches for 236 yards and two touchdowns in 36 games). He finished as Boston College's all-time leading rusher.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2019
36.0%of team plays
99 percentile at positionBoston College
Pass plays · 5.8%Run plays · 50.7%Third down · 18.3%Passing downs · 18.7%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Jamaal WilliamsGreen Bay Packers

Dependable committee back who takes the heavy and short-yardage snaps and produces a solid but unspectacular yards-per-carry line.

/ Ceiling
Derrick HenryTennessee Titans

The outlier version, where the size-speed combination overwhelms the position and carries a full workload rather than a package.

/ Floor
LeGarrette BlountNew England Patriots

Situational power runner who bounces between rosters because the role is narrow and easily replaced.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
—
Career AV
—

Green Bay never gave him the job, but it did give him a role. Dillon was the third back behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams as a rookie, gaining 242 yards on 46 carries. With Williams gone in 2021 he became the clear 1B in the committee and delivered the best season of his career: 187 carries for 803 yards and five scores, plus 34 catches for 313 yards and two more touchdowns. He held that role in 2022 with 186 carries for 770 yards and seven touchdowns, then saw the efficiency slide in 2023 to 3.4 yards a carry. A cervical stinger in Week 17 of that season ended his year, and the neck injury cost him all of 2024. He signed with Philadelphia in 2025 as a back-end depth piece behind Saquon Barkley, then moved to Carolina for 2026.

In hindsight this was a fine player picked in the wrong round. Dillon has been a useful complementary back for six seasons, but 617 career carries and 11 starts is thin return for the top of the second round, especially at a position where teams routinely find similar production later. The testing numbers were real and they were never the problem. The profile always pointed to a committee back, the neck injury took a year of his prime, and Green Bay paid a premium for a player the market values cheaply.

Data note: Imported from Wikipedia 2020 NFL draft player selections table.

The Draft Bomb · retrospective scouting profile